Brinje-Grosuplje 1–1 Adria: Result & Stats

Brinje-Grosuplje

FT

1 – 1

Adria

9/26/2020

3. SNL - West · West - 7Stadion Brinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Brinje-Grosuplje50%

×Draw24%

Adria26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brinje-GrosupljeExpected goals in this matchAdria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.12

Brinje-Grosuplje

1.66

Adria

1.12

Brinje-Grosuplje creates 48% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

2.10

creates per match

1.44

0.80

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Brinje-Grosuplje

2.10

Adria

1.44

allows per match

Brinje-Grosuplje

0.80

Adria

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par

Adria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brinje-Grosuplje ↓

Adria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Brinje-Grosuplje or draw

74%

Brinje-Grosuplje or Adria

76%

Draw or Adria

50%

Winning margin

Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+

27%

Adria wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals

81%

Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals

49%

Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals

23%

Adria 1+ goals

67%

Adria 2+ goals

31%

Adria 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)

66%

Adria (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brinje-Grosuplje at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Adria away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 2.10 + Adria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.66

Adria attack 1.44 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Brinje-Grosuplje scores more

50%

level

24%

Adria scores more

26%

Brinje-Grosuplje at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Brinje-Grosuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff