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Brikama United vs Dutch Lions — GFA League 2020

Brikama United
Brikama United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Dutch Lions
Dutch Lions
7/10/2025GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Brikama United46%
×Draw30%
Dutch Lions25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brikama United
1.22
Dutch Lions
0.81

Brikama United creates 51% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 30 away

creates per match

Brikama United
1.21
Dutch Lions
0.70

allows per match

Brikama United
0.92
Dutch Lions
1.23

finishing

Brikama United+0.00on par
Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brikama United ↓

Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Brikama United or draw
75%
Brikama United or Dutch Lions
70%
Draw or Dutch Lions
54%

Winning margin

Brikama United wins by 2+
20%
Dutch Lions wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brikama United 1+ goals
70%
Brikama United 2+ goals
34%
Brikama United 3+ goals
12%
Dutch Lions 1+ goals
56%
Dutch Lions 2+ goals
19%
Dutch Lions 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Brikama United (draw refunded)
65%
Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brikama United at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.92 · 87 matches

Dutch Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brikama United attack 1.21 + Dutch Lions defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dutch Lions attack 0.70 + Brikama United defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brikama United scores more
46%
level
30%
Dutch Lions scores more
25%

Brikama United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brikama United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brikama United vs Dutch Lions

Dutch Lions beat Brikama United 3-1 in GFA League on July 10, 2025.