Brighton W 2–1 Yeovil Town W: Result & Stats

Brighton W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Yeovil Town W

10/28/2018

FA WSL · Round 4The People's Pension Stadium (Crawley, West Sussex)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Brighton W55%

×Draw21%

Yeovil Town W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brighton WExpected goals in this matchYeovil Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.29

Brighton W

2.04

Yeovil Town W

1.29

Brighton W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 11 away

1.16

creates per match

0.64

1.94

allows per match

2.91

creates per match

Brighton W

1.16

Yeovil Town W

0.64

allows per match

Brighton W

1.94

Yeovil Town W

2.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brighton W+0.00on par

Yeovil Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton W ↓

Yeovil Town W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Brighton W or draw

76%

Brighton W or Yeovil Town W

79%

Draw or Yeovil Town W

45%

Winning margin

Brighton W wins by 2+

32%

Yeovil Town W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Brighton W 1+ goals

87%

Brighton W 2+ goals

60%

Brighton W 3+ goals

33%

Yeovil Town W 1+ goals

72%

Yeovil Town W 2+ goals

37%

Yeovil Town W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Brighton W (draw refunded)

69%

Yeovil Town W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 85 matches

Yeovil Town W away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton W attack 1.16 + Yeovil Town W defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 2.04

Yeovil Town W attack 0.64 + Brighton W defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brighton W scores more

55%

level

21%

Yeovil Town W scores more

24%

Brighton W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Brighton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff