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Brighton W vs Manchester United W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Brighton W
Brighton W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Manchester United W
Manchester United Wadvanced
3/9/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · Quarter-finalsBroadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Brighton W29%
×Draw21%
Manchester United W50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brighton W
1.52
Manchester United W
2.06

Manchester United W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Brighton W
2.33
Manchester United W
2.80

allows per match

Brighton W
1.33
Manchester United W
0.70

finishing

Brighton W+0.00on par
Manchester United W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton W ↓

Manchester United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Brighton W or draw
50%
Brighton W or Manchester United W
79%
Draw or Manchester United W
71%

Winning margin

Brighton W wins by 2+
13%
Manchester United W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Brighton W 1+ goals
78%
Brighton W 2+ goals
45%
Brighton W 3+ goals
20%
Manchester United W 1+ goals
87%
Manchester United W 2+ goals
61%
Manchester United W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Brighton W (draw refunded)
36%
Manchester United W (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Manchester United W away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton W attack 2.33 + Manchester United W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Manchester United W attack 2.80 + Brighton W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Brighton W scores more
29%
level
21%
Manchester United W scores more
50%

Manchester United W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brighton W vs Manchester United W

Manchester United W beat Brighton W 4-0 in FA Women's Cup on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Broadfield Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.