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Brighton W vs Huddersfield Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Brighton W
Brighton W
FT
6 – 0
Huddersfield Town W
Huddersfield Town W
5/16/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 5th RoundThe People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Brighton W58%
×Draw20%
Huddersfield Town W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brighton W
2.35
Huddersfield Town W
1.42

Brighton W creates 65% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Brighton W
2.33
Huddersfield Town W
1.50

allows per match

Brighton W
1.33
Huddersfield Town W
2.38

finishing

Brighton W+0.00on par
Huddersfield Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton W ↓

Huddersfield Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Brighton W or draw
77%
Brighton W or Huddersfield Town W
80%
Draw or Huddersfield Town W
42%

Winning margin

Brighton W wins by 2+
36%
Huddersfield Town W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brighton W 1+ goals
90%
Brighton W 2+ goals
68%
Brighton W 3+ goals
41%
Huddersfield Town W 1+ goals
76%
Huddersfield Town W 2+ goals
41%
Huddersfield Town W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Brighton W (draw refunded)
72%
Huddersfield Town W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Huddersfield Town W away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton W attack 2.33 + Huddersfield Town W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.35

Huddersfield Town W attack 1.50 + Brighton W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Brighton W scores more
58%
level
20%
Huddersfield Town W scores more
23%

Brighton W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Brighton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brighton W vs Huddersfield Town W

Brighton W beat Huddersfield Town W 6-0 in FA Women's Cup on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at The People's Pension Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.