Brighton W 4–0 Everton W: Result & Stats | FA WSL

Brighton W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Everton W

K. Seike 75', 56', 29'

F. Kirby 68' (pen)

9/21/2024

FA WSL · Round 1Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Brighton W32%

×Draw25%

Everton W43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brighton WExpected goals in this matchEverton W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.54

Brighton W

1.31

Everton W

1.54

Everton W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 80 away

1.16

creates per match

1.13

1.95

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Brighton W

1.16

Everton W

1.13

allows per match

Brighton W

1.95

Everton W

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brighton W+0.00on par

Everton W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton W ↓

Everton W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Brighton W or draw

57%

Brighton W or Everton W

75%

Draw or Everton W

68%

Winning margin

Brighton W wins by 2+

14%

Everton W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Brighton W 1+ goals

73%

Brighton W 2+ goals

38%

Brighton W 3+ goals

14%

Everton W 1+ goals

79%

Everton W 2+ goals

45%

Everton W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Brighton W (draw refunded)

43%

Everton W (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.95 · 80 matches

Everton W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton W attack 1.16 + Everton W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Everton W attack 1.13 + Brighton W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brighton W scores more

32%

level

25%

Everton W scores more

43%

Everton W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Everton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

K. Seike

Brighton W · F

10.0

Match Events

29'

K. Seike

56'

K. Seike↳ P. Pattinson

57'

K. Olesen← T. Payne

57'

H. Hayashi← Inma Gabarro

65'

Justine Vanhaevermaet

65'

M. Symonds← M. Olislagers

68'

F. KirbyPenalty

72'

N. Parris← P. Bremer

73'

J. Čanković← Bruna Vilamala

73'

H. Payne← V. Sarri

73'

L. Hope← S. Holmgaard

75'

K. Seike

81'

Maisie Symonds

82'

E. Bissell← K. Snoeijs

88'

M. Agyemang← K. Seike

88'

M. Haley← F. Kirby

90+4'

Jelena Čanković

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonEverton

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots7

5Corners6

14Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots7

7On Target2

2Off Target2

3Blocked3

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

546Total Passes357

479Accurate Passes301

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1