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Brighton W vs Durham W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Brighton W
Brighton W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Durham W
Durham W
1/29/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundAmerican Express Elite Football Performance Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brighton W43%
×Draw22%
Durham W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brighton W
1.95
Durham W
1.74

Brighton W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Brighton W
2.33
Durham W
2.14

allows per match

Brighton W
1.33
Durham W
1.57

finishing

Brighton W+0.00on par
Durham W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton W ↓

Durham W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Brighton W or draw
65%
Brighton W or Durham W
78%
Draw or Durham W
57%

Winning margin

Brighton W wins by 2+
24%
Durham W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Brighton W 1+ goals
86%
Brighton W 2+ goals
58%
Brighton W 3+ goals
31%
Durham W 1+ goals
82%
Durham W 2+ goals
52%
Durham W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Brighton W (draw refunded)
55%
Durham W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Durham W away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton W attack 2.33 + Durham W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.95

Durham W attack 2.14 + Brighton W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brighton W scores more
43%
level
22%
Durham W scores more
35%

Brighton W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brighton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brighton W vs Durham W

Brighton W beat Durham W 4-1 in FA Women's Cup on January 29, 2025.

The match was played at American Express Elite Football Performance Centre in Lancing, West Sussex.