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Brighton W vs Crystal Palace W — FA WSL 2018

Brighton W
Brighton W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Crystal Palace W
Crystal Palace W
2/2/2025FA WSLFA WSL · Round 13Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Brighton W52%
×Draw21%
Crystal Palace W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brighton W
2.13
Crystal Palace W
1.47

Brighton W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 11 away

creates per match

Brighton W
1.16
Crystal Palace W
1.00

allows per match

Brighton W
1.94
Crystal Palace W
3.09

finishing

Brighton W+0.00on par
Crystal Palace W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton W ↓

Crystal Palace W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Brighton W or draw
73%
Brighton W or Crystal Palace W
79%
Draw or Crystal Palace W
48%

Winning margin

Brighton W wins by 2+
31%
Crystal Palace W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brighton W 1+ goals
88%
Brighton W 2+ goals
63%
Brighton W 3+ goals
35%
Crystal Palace W 1+ goals
77%
Crystal Palace W 2+ goals
43%
Crystal Palace W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Brighton W (draw refunded)
66%
Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 85 matches

Crystal Palace W away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton W attack 1.16 + Crystal Palace W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.13

Crystal Palace W attack 1.00 + Brighton W defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brighton W scores more
52%
level
21%
Crystal Palace W scores more
27%

Brighton W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brighton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brighton W vs Crystal Palace W

Brighton W and Crystal Palace W drew 1-1 in FA WSL on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Broadfield Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.