Brighton W 5–0 Coventry United W: Result & Stats

Brighton W

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Coventry United W

2/26/2023

FA Women's Cup · 5th RoundBroadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Brighton W55%

×Draw19%

Coventry United W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brighton WExpected goals in this matchCoventry United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.75

Brighton W

2.58

Coventry United W

1.75

Brighton W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

2.33

creates per match

2.17

1.33

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Brighton W

2.33

Coventry United W

2.17

allows per match

Brighton W

1.33

Coventry United W

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brighton W+0.00on par

Coventry United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton W ↓

Coventry United W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Brighton W or draw

74%

Brighton W or Coventry United W

81%

Draw or Coventry United W

45%

Winning margin

Brighton W wins by 2+

35%

Coventry United W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Brighton W 1+ goals

92%

Brighton W 2+ goals

72%

Brighton W 3+ goals

47%

Coventry United W 1+ goals

83%

Coventry United W 2+ goals

52%

Coventry United W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Brighton W (draw refunded)

68%

Coventry United W (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Brighton W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Coventry United W away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Brighton W attack 2.33 + Coventry United W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.58

Coventry United W attack 2.17 + Brighton W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brighton W scores more

55%

level

19%

Coventry United W scores more

26%

Brighton W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Brighton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff