Brighton W 0–1 Aston Villa W: Result & Stats

Brighton W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aston Villa W

A. Lehmann 64'

5/4/2024

FA WSL · Round 21Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Brighton W35%

×Draw24%

Aston Villa W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brighton WExpected goals in this matchAston Villa W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.61

Brighton W

1.49

Aston Villa W

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 66 away

1.16

creates per match

1.27

1.95

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Brighton W

1.16

Aston Villa W

1.27

allows per match

Brighton W

1.95

Aston Villa W

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brighton W+0.00on par

Aston Villa W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton W ↓

Aston Villa W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Brighton W or draw

59%

Brighton W or Aston Villa W

76%

Draw or Aston Villa W

65%

Winning margin

Brighton W wins by 2+

17%

Aston Villa W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Brighton W 1+ goals

77%

Brighton W 2+ goals

44%

Brighton W 3+ goals

19%

Aston Villa W 1+ goals

80%

Aston Villa W 2+ goals

48%

Aston Villa W 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Brighton W (draw refunded)

47%

Aston Villa W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.95 · 80 matches

Aston Villa W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton W attack 1.16 + Aston Villa W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.49

Aston Villa W attack 1.27 + Brighton W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brighton W scores more

35%

level

24%

Aston Villa W scores more

41%

Aston Villa W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aston Villa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Lehmann

Aston Villa W · M

7.6

Match Events

18'

45+2'

56'

60'

64'

K. Robinson← Vicky Losada

64'

65'

65'

65'

75'

D. Stefanović← M. Symonds

75'

V. Sarri← Lee Geum-Min

81'

M. Pacheco← D. Turner

90'

E. Kullberg← J. Carabalí

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonAston

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots14

2Corners2

10Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots14

3On Target3

4Off Target9

3Blocked2

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

452Total Passes518

357Accurate Passes407

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls6

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3