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Aston Villa W vs Brighton W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Brighton W
Brighton W
2/8/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 5th RoundPoundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aston Villa W43%
×Draw19%
Brighton W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aston Villa W
2.48
Brighton W
2.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Aston Villa W
3.71
Brighton W
3.00

allows per match

Aston Villa W
1.71
Brighton W
1.25

finishing

Aston Villa W+0.00on par
Brighton W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa W ↓

Brighton W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Aston Villa W or draw
62%
Aston Villa W or Brighton W
81%
Draw or Brighton W
57%

Winning margin

Aston Villa W wins by 2+
25%
Brighton W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Aston Villa W 1+ goals
92%
Aston Villa W 2+ goals
70%
Aston Villa W 3+ goals
44%
Brighton W 1+ goals
90%
Brighton W 2+ goals
68%
Brighton W 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa W (draw refunded)
53%
Brighton W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa W at home — creates 3.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Brighton W away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa W attack 3.71 + Brighton W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.48

Brighton W attack 3.00 + Aston Villa W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aston Villa W scores more
43%
level
19%
Brighton W scores more
38%

Aston Villa W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aston Villa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Aston Villa W 3–2 Brighton W

Aston Villa W beat Brighton W 3-2 in FA Women's Cup on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.