Brighton 0–0 West Brom: Result & Stats | League #45

Brighton

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

West Brom

1/26/2019

League #45 · 4th RoundAmex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brighton53%

×Draw29%

West Brom19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrightonExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.67

Brighton

1.33

West Brom

0.67

Brighton creates 99% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

0.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Brighton

1.67

West Brom

0.67

allows per match

Brighton

0.67

West Brom

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brighton+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Brighton or draw

81%

Brighton or West Brom

71%

Draw or West Brom

47%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+

25%

West Brom wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals

74%

Brighton 2+ goals

38%

Brighton 3+ goals

15%

West Brom 1+ goals

49%

West Brom 2+ goals

15%

West Brom 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)

74%

West Brom (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.67 + West Brom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

West Brom attack 0.67 + Brighton defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brighton scores more

53%

level

29%

West Brom scores more

19%

Brighton at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Bond

West Brom · G

8.5

Match Events

59'

Jürgen Locadia

63'

D. Pröpper← D. Stephens

72'

V. Gyökeres← J. Locadia

81'

R. Tulloch← W. Hoolahan

83'

G. Murray← F. Andone

89'

M. Holgate← J. Leko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonWest

Overview

56%Possession44%

24Total Shots6

8Corners3

12Fouls3

Shots

24Total Shots6

7On Target2

9Off Target4

8Blocked0

9Inside Box4

15Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

470Total Passes369

401Accurate Passes307

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls3

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0