Brighton 3–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Brighton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

T. Hemed 63'

P. Groß 48', 45'

J. Morrison 77'

9/9/2017

Premier League · Round 4American Express Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Brighton46%

×Draw27%

West Brom28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrightonExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.04

Brighton

1.42

West Brom

1.04

Brighton creates 37% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 94 away

1.32

creates per match

0.84

1.24

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Brighton

1.32

West Brom

0.84

allows per match

Brighton

1.24

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brighton+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Brighton or draw

72%

Brighton or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

54%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+

22%

West Brom wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals

76%

Brighton 2+ goals

41%

Brighton 3+ goals

17%

West Brom 1+ goals

65%

West Brom 2+ goals

28%

West Brom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)

62%

West Brom (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.24 · 147 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.32 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

West Brom attack 0.84 + Brighton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brighton scores more

46%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

28%

Brighton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

P. Groß

Brighton · F

9.1

Match Events

45'

P. Groß↳ S. March

48'

P. Groß↳ T. Hemed

57'

K. Gibbs← Ahmed Hegazi

57'

O. Burke← S. Rondón

62'

L. Rosenior← Bruno Saltor

63'

T. Hemed↳ P. Groß

71'

J. Morrison← J. Livermore

77'

J. Morrison↳ O. Burke

83'

G. Murray← T. Hemed

88'

Solly March

90'

Glenn Murray

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonWest

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots12

2Corners6

9Fouls4

Shots

12Total Shots12

6On Target3

3Off Target6

3Blocked3

3Inside Box5

9Outside Box7

Passing

48%Possession52%

448Total Passes461

363Accurate Passes377

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls4

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1