Brighton 1–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Brighton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Watford

P. Groß 64'

12/23/2017

Premier League · Round 19American Express Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Brighton48%

×Draw25%

Watford27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrightonExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.10

Brighton

1.56

Watford

1.10

Brighton creates 42% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 112 away

1.32

creates per match

0.96

1.24

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Brighton

1.32

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Brighton

1.24

Watford

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brighton+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Brighton or draw

73%

Brighton or Watford

75%

Draw or Watford

52%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+

25%

Watford wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals

79%

Brighton 2+ goals

46%

Brighton 3+ goals

21%

Watford 1+ goals

67%

Watford 2+ goals

30%

Watford 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)

64%

Watford (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.24 · 147 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.32 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Watford attack 0.96 + Brighton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brighton scores more

48%

level

25%

Watford scores more

27%

Brighton at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

P. Groß

Brighton · F

8.3

Match Events

64'

P. Groß↳ T. Hemed

71'

J. Sinclair← R. Pereyra

74'

E. Capoue← B. Watson

78'

S. Okaka← A. Gray

83'

B. Kayal← P. Groß

87'

G. Murray← T. Hemed

90+3'

J. Izquierdo← S. March

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonWatford

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots12

6Corners4

8Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots12

3On Target1

8Off Target6

3Blocked5

8Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

426Total Passes397

328Accurate Passes288

77%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls11

6Offsides0