Brighton 3–1 Southampton: Result & Stats

Brighton

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Southampton

P. Groß 69'

E. Ferguson 40', 29'

M. Elyounoussi 58'

5/21/2023

Premier League · Round 37The American Express Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Brighton57%

×Draw23%

Southampton21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrightonExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.01

Brighton

1.84

Southampton

1.01

Brighton creates 82% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 11 away

1.63

creates per match

0.89

1.12

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Brighton

1.63

Southampton

0.89

allows per match

Brighton

1.12

Southampton

2.05

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Brighton+0.09on par

Southampton-0.07on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Brighton or draw

79%

Brighton or Southampton

77%

Draw or Southampton

43%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+

33%

Southampton wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals

84%

Brighton 2+ goals

55%

Brighton 3+ goals

28%

Southampton 1+ goals

64%

Southampton 2+ goals

27%

Southampton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)

73%

Southampton (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.12 · 32 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.05 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.63 + Southampton defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.84

Southampton attack 0.89 + Brighton defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Brighton scores more

57%

level

23%

Southampton scores more

21%

Brighton at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

E. Ferguson

Brighton · F

8.3

Match Events

14'

Jan Bednarek

29'

E. Ferguson↳ A. Mac Allister

34'

Carlos Alcaraz

40'

E. Ferguson↳ K. Mitoma

43'

Mohamed Elyounoussi

46'

F. Buonanotte← J. Enciso

58'

M. Elyounoussi↳ J. Ward-Prowse

64'

James Ward-Prowse

64'

Theo WalcottGoal cancelled

65'

D. Welbeck← E. Ferguson

67'

69'

70'

71'

71'

K. Sulemana← M. Elyounoussi

71'

S. Armstrong← C. Alcaraz

74'

D. Undav← J. Veltman

77'

V. Livramento← J. Bree

84'

K. Doyle← R. Lavia

88'

B. Gilmour← K. Mitoma

89'

J. van Hecke← L. Colwill

90+3'

Facundo Buonanotte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonSouthampton

Overview

63%Possession37%

26Total Shots5

2.53Expected Goals (xG)0.60

4Corners3

8Fouls9

Shots

26Total Shots5

8On Target1

11Off Target3

7Blocked1

18Inside Box4

8Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

627Total Passes368

575Accurate Passes293

92%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1

Premier League: Brighton 3–1 Southampton

Brighton beat Southampton 3-1 in Premier League on May 21, 2023.

Goals: E. Ferguson (29', 40'), M. Elyounoussi (58'), P. Groß (69').

Brighton controlled possession (63%) and registered 26 shots to 5.

The match was played at The American Express Community Stadium in Falmer, East Sussex.

Brighton vs Southampton — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Brighton 3–1 Southampton