Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brighton vs Sheffield Utd — Premier League 2026

Brighton
Brighton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
12/21/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18The American Express Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Brighton59%
×Draw23%
Sheffield Utd18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brighton
1.80
Sheffield Utd
0.88

Brighton creates 105% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 10 away

creates per match

Brighton
1.63
Sheffield Utd
0.66

allows per match

Brighton
1.09
Sheffield Utd
1.98

finishing

Brighton+0.05on par
Sheffield Utd+0.04on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brighton or draw
82%
Brighton or Sheffield Utd
77%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
41%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+
34%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals
83%
Brighton 2+ goals
54%
Brighton 3+ goals
27%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
59%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
22%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)
77%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.63 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sheffield Utd attack 0.66 + Brighton defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Brighton scores more
59%
level
23%
Sheffield Utd scores more
18%

Brighton at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Brighton 0–1 Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd beat Brighton 1-0 in Premier League on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at The American Express Community Stadium in Falmer, East Sussex.