Brighton 1–4 Manchester City: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrightonExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.48

Brighton

1.39

Manchester City

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 36 away

1.57

creates per match

1.84

1.13

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Brighton

1.57

Manchester City

1.84

allows per match

Brighton

1.13

Manchester City

1.21

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Brighton+0.10scores more

Manchester City-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Brighton or draw

60%

Brighton or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

64%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+

16%

Manchester City wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals

75%

Brighton 2+ goals

40%

Brighton 3+ goals

16%

Manchester City 1+ goals

77%

Manchester City 2+ goals

43%

Manchester City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)

47%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.21 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.57 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.39

Manchester City attack 1.84 + Brighton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brighton scores more

36%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

40%

Manchester City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

R. Mahrez

Manchester City · M

8.3

Match Events

27'

G. Murray↳ P. Groß

28'

S. Agüero↳ David Silva

38'

A. Laporte↳ R. Mahrez

63'

R. Mahrez↳ David Silva

67'

J. Locadia← A. Jahanbakhsh

68'

F. Andone← G. Murray

72'

İ. Gündoğan

78'

K. De Bruyne← David Silva

84'

Martín Montoya← Bruno Saltor

86'

N. Otamendi← V. Kompany

88'

Danilo← K. Walker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonManchester

Overview

23%Possession77%

6Total Shots20

2Corners6

12Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots20

2On Target9

3Off Target3

1Blocked8

3Inside Box9

3Outside Box11

Passing

23%Possession77%

245Total Passes796

176Accurate Passes737

72%Pass Accuracy93%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Offsides1