Brighton 1–1 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Brighton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Huddersfield

J. Lössl 29' (OG)

S. Mounié 32'

4/7/2018

Premier League · Round 33American Express Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Brighton56%

×Draw24%

Huddersfield20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrightonExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.89

Brighton

1.67

Huddersfield

0.89

Brighton creates 88% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 36 away

1.39

creates per match

0.58

1.19

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Brighton

1.39

Huddersfield

0.58

allows per match

Brighton

1.19

Huddersfield

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brighton+0.00on par

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Brighton or draw

80%

Brighton or Huddersfield

76%

Draw or Huddersfield

44%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+

30%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals

81%

Brighton 2+ goals

50%

Brighton 3+ goals

23%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

59%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

22%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)

74%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 140 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.39 + Huddersfield defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

Huddersfield attack 0.58 + Brighton defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Brighton scores more

56%

level

24%

Huddersfield scores more

20%

Brighton at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

T. Kongolo

Huddersfield · D

8.0

Match Events

29'

J. LösslOwn goal

32'

58'

67'

74'

76'

80'

90+3'

90'

C. Quaner← R. van La Parra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonHuddersfield

Overview

40%Possession60%

13Total Shots15

5Corners3

13Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots15

4On Target5

6Off Target5

3Blocked5

9Inside Box8

5Outside Box7

Passing

40%Possession60%

360Total Passes525

234Accurate Passes412

65%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

3Offsides3