Brighton 1–3 Burnley: Result & Stats

Brighton

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Burnley

S. Duffy 76'

A. Barnes 74' (pen)

C. Wood 61', 26'

2/9/2019

Premier League · Round 26American Express Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Brighton58%

×Draw23%

Burnley20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrightonExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.96

Brighton

1.83

Burnley

0.96

Brighton creates 91% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

1.57

creates per match

0.79

1.13

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Brighton

1.57

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

Brighton

1.13

Burnley

2.10

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Brighton+0.10scores more

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Brighton or draw

80%

Brighton or Burnley

77%

Draw or Burnley

42%

Winning margin

Brighton wins by 2+

33%

Burnley wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brighton 1+ goals

84%

Brighton 2+ goals

54%

Brighton 3+ goals

28%

Burnley 1+ goals

62%

Burnley 2+ goals

25%

Burnley 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Brighton (draw refunded)

75%

Burnley (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton attack 1.57 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.83

Burnley attack 0.79 + Brighton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Brighton scores more

58%

level

23%

Burnley scores more

20%

Brighton at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Brighton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. Wood

Burnley · F

8.4

Match Events

26'

C. Wood↳ A. Barnes

48'

A. Knockaert← S. March

61'

C. Wood↳ D. McNeil

66'

Y. Bissouma← P. Groß

66'

A. Jahanbakhsh← J. Locadia

72'

Mathew Ryan

74'

A. BarnesPenalty

76'

Ashley Westwood

76'

S. Duffy↳ A. Knockaert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrightonBurnley

Overview

68%Possession32%

16Total Shots9

9Corners3

8Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots9

6On Target5

4Off Target2

6Blocked2

13Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

519Total Passes253

410Accurate Passes149

79%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0