Brighton U21 vs Birmingham City U21 — League #702 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Brighton U2157%
Birmingham City U2124%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Brighton U21 creates 58% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over77
- Under23
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes73
- No27
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Brighton U21 ↓
Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Brighton U21 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches
Birmingham City U21 away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Brighton U21 attack 1.80 + Birmingham City U21 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.52
Birmingham City U21 attack 1.38 + Brighton U21 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.59
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
Brighton U21 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "Brighton U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
Nottingham Forest U21Birmingham City U21
Manchester City U21
Liverpool U21Brighton U21
Leeds United U21
Chelsea U21
Leicester City U21
Southampton U21
Manchester United U21
Crystal Palace U21
Arsenal U21
Tottenham Hotspur U21
West Bromwich Albion U21
Ipswich Town U21
Blackburn Rovers U21
West Ham United U21
Stoke City U21
Reading U21
Middlesbrough U21
Sunderland U21
Wolves U21
Aston Villa U21
Derby County U21
Everton U21
Fulham U21
Burnley U21
Newcastle United U21If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Brighton U21 host Birmingham City U21 on Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 16:00. The match is part of the League #702 2026/2027 season.
League #702: Brighton U21 3–2 Birmingham City U21
Brighton U21 beat Birmingham City U21 3-2 in League #702 on February 22, 2026.
Goals: C. Mackley (13'), Z. Betteka (27'), J. Belmont (34'), A. West (76'), L. Rea (90').
The match was played at Elite Football Performance Centre in Lancing.