Brighton U18 vs Aston Villa U18 — League #696 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Brighton U1825%
Aston Villa U1856%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Aston Villa U18 creates 50% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 58 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over81
- Under19
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes76
- No24
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Brighton U18 ↓
Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Brighton U18 at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.89 · 9 matches
Aston Villa U18 away — creates 2.34, concedes 2.38 · 58 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Brighton U18 attack 1.11 + Aston Villa U18 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.75
Aston Villa U18 attack 2.34 + Brighton U18 defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.62
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Aston Villa U18 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Aston Villa U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsAston Villa U18
Chelsea U18
West Bromwich Albion U18
Crystal Palace U18
West Ham United U18
Tottenham Hotspur U18
Southampton U18
Leicester City U18
Arsenal U18
Leeds United U18Brighton U18
Ipswich Town U18
Fulham U18
Norwich City U18
Blackburn Rovers U18
Reading U18
Birmingham City U18If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Brighton U18 host Aston Villa U18 on Saturday, 4 May 2024 at 10:00. The match is part of the League #696 2026/2027 season.
League #696: Brighton U18 3–2 Aston Villa U18
Brighton U18 beat Aston Villa U18 3-2 in League #696 on May 4, 2024.
Goals: C. Mackley (20'), J. Belmont (40'), C. Penman (56'), C. Pavey (75'), L. Lynch (90').
The match was played at American Express Elite Football Performance Centre in Lancing, West Sussex.