Brightlingsea Regent 1–0 Wroxham: Result & Stats

Brightlingsea Regent

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wroxham

3/7/2026

League #52

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brightlingsea Regent32%

×Draw36%

Wroxham33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brightlingsea RegentExpected goals in this matchWroxham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

0.80

Brightlingsea Regent

0.78

Wroxham

0.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

0.33

creates per match

0.92

0.67

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Brightlingsea Regent

0.33

Wroxham

0.92

allows per match

Brightlingsea Regent

0.67

Wroxham

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brightlingsea Regent+0.00on par

Wroxham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brightlingsea Regent ↓

Wroxham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

47%53%2.5

21%79%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Brightlingsea Regent or draw

67%

Brightlingsea Regent or Wroxham

64%

Draw or Wroxham

68%

Winning margin

Brightlingsea Regent wins by 2+

10%

Wroxham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Brightlingsea Regent 1+ goals

54%

Brightlingsea Regent 2+ goals

18%

Brightlingsea Regent 3+ goals

4%

Wroxham 1+ goals

55%

Wroxham 2+ goals

19%

Wroxham 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Brightlingsea Regent (draw refunded)

49%

Wroxham (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brightlingsea Regent at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Wroxham away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brightlingsea Regent attack 0.33 + Wroxham defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.78

Wroxham attack 0.92 + Brightlingsea Regent defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Brightlingsea Regent scores more

32%

level

36%

Wroxham scores more

33%

Wroxham at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Wroxham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff