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Bright Stars vs KCCA — Premier League 2019

Bright Stars
Bright Stars
FT
1 – 1
KCCA
KCCA
11/2/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Kavumba Recreation Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Bright Stars34%
×Draw30%
KCCA36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bright Stars
1.03
KCCA
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 100 away

creates per match

Bright Stars
1.14
KCCA
1.20

allows per match

Bright Stars
0.95
KCCA
0.93

finishing

Bright Stars+0.00on par
KCCA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bright Stars ↓

KCCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bright Stars or draw
64%
Bright Stars or KCCA
70%
Draw or KCCA
66%

Winning margin

Bright Stars wins by 2+
13%
KCCA wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bright Stars 1+ goals
64%
Bright Stars 2+ goals
28%
Bright Stars 3+ goals
9%
KCCA 1+ goals
66%
KCCA 2+ goals
29%
KCCA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bright Stars (draw refunded)
49%
KCCA (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bright Stars at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.95 · 86 matches

KCCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bright Stars attack 1.14 + KCCA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

KCCA attack 1.20 + Bright Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bright Stars scores more
34%
level
30%
KCCA scores more
36%

KCCA at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bright Stars 1–1 KCCA

Bright Stars and KCCA drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 2, 2021.

The match was played at Kavumba Recreation Center in Wakiso.