Bright Stars 0–2 BUL: Result & Stats

Bright Stars

FT

0 – 2

BUL

3/10/2021

Premier League · Round 13Kavumba Recreation Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Bright Stars37%

×Draw29%

BUL34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bright StarsExpected goals in this matchBUL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.06

Bright Stars

1.11

BUL

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 100 away

1.14

creates per match

1.17

0.95

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Bright Stars

1.14

BUL

1.17

allows per match

Bright Stars

0.95

BUL

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bright Stars+0.00on par

BUL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bright Stars ↓

BUL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bright Stars or draw

66%

Bright Stars or BUL

71%

Draw or BUL

63%

Winning margin

Bright Stars wins by 2+

15%

BUL wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bright Stars 1+ goals

67%

Bright Stars 2+ goals

30%

Bright Stars 3+ goals

10%

BUL 1+ goals

65%

BUL 2+ goals

29%

BUL 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bright Stars (draw refunded)

52%

BUL (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bright Stars at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.95 · 86 matches

BUL away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bright Stars attack 1.14 + BUL defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

BUL attack 1.17 + Bright Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bright Stars scores more

37%

level

29%

BUL scores more

34%

Bright Stars at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bright Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff