Brighouse Town W 0–1 Sunderland W: Result & Stats

Brighouse Town W

0 – 1

Sunderland W

12/12/2021

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThe Yorkshire Payments Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brighouse Town W38%

×Draw22%

Sunderland W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brighouse Town WExpected goals in this matchSunderland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.83

Brighouse Town W

1.76

Sunderland W

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

2.67

creates per match

3.00

0.67

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Brighouse Town W

2.67

Sunderland W

3.00

allows per match

Brighouse Town W

0.67

Sunderland W

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brighouse Town W+0.00on par

Sunderland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighouse Town W ↓

Sunderland W →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Brighouse Town W or draw

60%

Brighouse Town W or Sunderland W

78%

Draw or Sunderland W

62%

Winning margin

Brighouse Town W wins by 2+

19%

Sunderland W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Brighouse Town W 1+ goals

83%

Brighouse Town W 2+ goals

52%

Brighouse Town W 3+ goals

26%

Sunderland W 1+ goals

84%

Sunderland W 2+ goals

54%

Sunderland W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Brighouse Town W (draw refunded)

48%

Sunderland W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Brighouse Town W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Sunderland W away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Brighouse Town W attack 2.67 + Sunderland W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.76

Sunderland W attack 3.00 + Brighouse Town W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brighouse Town W scores more

38%

level

22%

Sunderland W scores more

40%

Sunderland W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sunderland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff