Brighouse Town W 3–0 Newcastle United W

Brighouse Town W

AET

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Newcastle United W

4/4/2021

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Yorkshire Payments Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brighouse Town W40%

×Draw20%

Newcastle United W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brighouse Town WExpected goals in this matchNewcastle United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

Brighouse Town W

2.08

Newcastle United W

2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.67

creates per match

3.50

0.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Brighouse Town W

2.67

Newcastle United W

3.50

allows per match

Brighouse Town W

0.67

Newcastle United W

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brighouse Town W+0.00on par

Newcastle United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighouse Town W ↓

Newcastle United W →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Brighouse Town W or draw

60%

Brighouse Town W or Newcastle United W

80%

Draw or Newcastle United W

60%

Winning margin

Brighouse Town W wins by 2+

22%

Newcastle United W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Brighouse Town W 1+ goals

87%

Brighouse Town W 2+ goals

61%

Brighouse Town W 3+ goals

34%

Newcastle United W 1+ goals

87%

Newcastle United W 2+ goals

61%

Newcastle United W 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Brighouse Town W (draw refunded)

50%

Newcastle United W (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Brighouse Town W at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Newcastle United W away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Brighouse Town W attack 2.67 + Newcastle United W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Newcastle United W attack 3.50 + Brighouse Town W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brighouse Town W scores more

40%

level

20%

Newcastle United W scores more

40%

Brighouse Town W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brighouse Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brighouse Town W vs Newcastle United W

Brighouse Town W beat Newcastle United W 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at The Yorkshire Payments Stadium in Brighouse, West Yorkshire.

Brighouse Town W vs Newcastle United W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Brighouse Town W vs Newcastle United W