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Břidličná vs Unie Hlubina — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Břidličná
Břidličná
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Unie Hlubina
Unie Hlubina
8/5/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 1Fotbalové Hřiště Břidličná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Břidličná28%
×Draw25%
Unie Hlubina47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Břidličná
1.19
Unie Hlubina
1.61

Unie Hlubina creates 35% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 28 away

creates per match

Břidličná
1.31
Unie Hlubina
1.68

allows per match

Břidličná
1.55
Unie Hlubina
1.07

finishing

Břidličná+0.00on par
Unie Hlubina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Břidličná ↓

Unie Hlubina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Břidličná or draw
53%
Břidličná or Unie Hlubina
75%
Draw or Unie Hlubina
72%

Winning margin

Břidličná wins by 2+
11%
Unie Hlubina wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Břidličná 1+ goals
70%
Břidličná 2+ goals
33%
Břidličná 3+ goals
12%
Unie Hlubina 1+ goals
80%
Unie Hlubina 2+ goals
48%
Unie Hlubina 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Břidličná (draw refunded)
37%
Unie Hlubina (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Břidličná at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.55 · 58 matches

Unie Hlubina away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Břidličná attack 1.31 + Unie Hlubina defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Unie Hlubina attack 1.68 + Břidličná defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Břidličná scores more
28%
level
25%
Unie Hlubina scores more
47%

Unie Hlubina at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Unie Hlubina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Břidličná vs Unie Hlubina

Unie Hlubina beat Břidličná 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Fotbalové Hřiště Břidličná in Břidličná.