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Břidličná vs Slavoj Olympia Bruntál — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Břidličná
Břidličná
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
8/20/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 3Fotbalové Hřiště Břidličná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Břidličná55%
×Draw22%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Břidličná
2.01
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.22

Břidličná creates 65% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

creates per match

Břidličná
1.31
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
0.89

allows per match

Břidličná
1.55
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.71

finishing

Břidličná+0.00on par
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Břidličná ↓

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Břidličná or draw
77%
Břidličná or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
78%
Draw or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
45%

Winning margin

Břidličná wins by 2+
33%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Břidličná 1+ goals
87%
Břidličná 2+ goals
59%
Břidličná 3+ goals
32%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
70%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
34%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Břidličná (draw refunded)
71%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Břidličná at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.55 · 58 matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Břidličná attack 1.31 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.01

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 0.89 + Břidličná defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Břidličná scores more
55%
level
22%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
23%

Břidličná at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Břidličná will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Břidličná vs Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Břidličná beat Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalové Hřiště Břidličná in Břidličná.