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Břidličná vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Břidličná
Břidličná
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
8/17/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 3Fotbalové Hřiště Břidličná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Břidličná48%
×Draw23%
Beskyd Frenštát29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Břidličná
1.84
Beskyd Frenštát
1.39

Břidličná creates 32% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 60 away

creates per match

Břidličná
1.31
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Břidličná
1.55
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Břidličná+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Břidličná ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Břidličná or draw
71%
Břidličná or Beskyd Frenštát
77%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
52%

Winning margin

Břidličná wins by 2+
26%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Břidličná 1+ goals
84%
Břidličná 2+ goals
55%
Břidličná 3+ goals
28%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
75%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
40%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Břidličná (draw refunded)
62%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Břidličná at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.55 · 58 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Břidličná attack 1.31 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.84

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Břidličná defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Břidličná scores more
48%
level
23%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
29%

Břidličná at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Břidličná will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Břidličná vs Beskyd Frenštát

Břidličná beat Beskyd Frenštát 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Fotbalové Hřiště Břidličná in Břidličná.