Bridgwater United W 0–2 Manchester United W

Bridgwater United W

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester United W

1/30/2022

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundFairfax Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bridgwater United W22%

×Draw24%

Manchester United W54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bridgwater United WExpected goals in this matchManchester United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.73

Bridgwater United W

1.02

Manchester United W

1.73

Manchester United W creates 70% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

2.80

0.67

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Bridgwater United W

1.33

Manchester United W

2.80

allows per match

Bridgwater United W

0.67

Manchester United W

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bridgwater United W+0.00on par

Manchester United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bridgwater United W ↓

Manchester United W →

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bridgwater United W or draw

46%

Bridgwater United W or Manchester United W

76%

Draw or Manchester United W

78%

Winning margin

Bridgwater United W wins by 2+

Manchester United W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Bridgwater United W 1+ goals

64%

Bridgwater United W 2+ goals

27%

Bridgwater United W 3+ goals

Manchester United W 1+ goals

82%

Manchester United W 2+ goals

52%

Manchester United W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Bridgwater United W (draw refunded)

29%

Manchester United W (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bridgwater United W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Manchester United W away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bridgwater United W attack 1.33 + Manchester United W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.02

Manchester United W attack 2.80 + Bridgwater United W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bridgwater United W scores more

22%

level

24%

Manchester United W scores more

54%

Manchester United W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff