Bridgwater United W 1–0 Crystal Palace W

Bridgwater United W

1 – 0

Crystal Palace W

12/12/2021

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundFairfax Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bridgwater United W67%

×Draw21%

Crystal Palace W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bridgwater United WExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.65

Bridgwater United W

1.92

Crystal Palace W

0.65

Bridgwater United W creates 195% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

0.63

0.67

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Bridgwater United W

1.33

Crystal Palace W

0.63

allows per match

Bridgwater United W

0.67

Crystal Palace W

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bridgwater United W+0.00on par

Crystal Palace W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bridgwater United W ↓

Crystal Palace W →

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bridgwater United W or draw

88%

Bridgwater United W or Crystal Palace W

79%

Draw or Crystal Palace W

33%

Winning margin

Bridgwater United W wins by 2+

41%

Crystal Palace W wins by 2+

Team goals

Bridgwater United W 1+ goals

85%

Bridgwater United W 2+ goals

57%

Bridgwater United W 3+ goals

30%

Crystal Palace W 1+ goals

48%

Crystal Palace W 2+ goals

14%

Crystal Palace W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bridgwater United W (draw refunded)

85%

Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bridgwater United W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Crystal Palace W away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bridgwater United W attack 1.33 + Crystal Palace W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Crystal Palace W attack 0.63 + Bridgwater United W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Bridgwater United W scores more

67%

level

21%

Crystal Palace W scores more

12%

Bridgwater United W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Bridgwater United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff