Brian Lignano 1–3 Montecchio Maggiore

Brian Lignano

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Montecchio Maggiore

11/24/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 15Stadio Guido Teghil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Brian Lignano42%

×Draw27%

Montecchio Maggiore32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brian LignanoExpected goals in this matchMontecchio Maggiore

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.15

Brian Lignano

1.36

Montecchio Maggiore

1.15

Brian Lignano creates 18% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 53 away

1.28

creates per match

1.32

0.97

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Brian Lignano

1.28

Montecchio Maggiore

1.32

allows per match

Brian Lignano

0.97

Montecchio Maggiore

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brian Lignano+0.00on par

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brian Lignano ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Brian Lignano or draw

68%

Brian Lignano or Montecchio Maggiore

73%

Draw or Montecchio Maggiore

58%

Winning margin

Brian Lignano wins by 2+

19%

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Brian Lignano 1+ goals

74%

Brian Lignano 2+ goals

39%

Brian Lignano 3+ goals

16%

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals

68%

Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals

32%

Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Brian Lignano (draw refunded)

57%

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brian Lignano at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brian Lignano attack 1.28 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Brian Lignano defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brian Lignano scores more

42%

level

27%

Montecchio Maggiore scores more

32%

Brian Lignano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brian Lignano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff