Brian Lignano 3–0 Lavis: Result & Stats

Brian Lignano

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lavis

2/23/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 29Stadio Guido Teghil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brian Lignano66%

×Draw20%

Lavis14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brian LignanoExpected goals in this matchLavis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.80

Brian Lignano

2.06

Lavis

0.80

Brian Lignano creates 157% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 19 away

1.28

creates per match

0.63

0.97

allows per match

2.84

creates per match

Brian Lignano

1.28

Lavis

0.63

allows per match

Brian Lignano

0.97

Lavis

2.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brian Lignano+0.00on par

Lavis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brian Lignano ↓

Lavis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Brian Lignano or draw

86%

Brian Lignano or Lavis

80%

Draw or Lavis

34%

Winning margin

Brian Lignano wins by 2+

42%

Lavis wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Brian Lignano 1+ goals

87%

Brian Lignano 2+ goals

61%

Brian Lignano 3+ goals

34%

Lavis 1+ goals

55%

Lavis 2+ goals

19%

Lavis 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Brian Lignano (draw refunded)

83%

Lavis (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brian Lignano at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Lavis away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brian Lignano attack 1.28 + Lavis defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.06

Lavis attack 0.63 + Brian Lignano defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Brian Lignano scores more

66%

level

20%

Lavis scores more

14%

Brian Lignano at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Brian Lignano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff