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Brian Lignano vs Chions — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Brian Lignano
Brian Lignano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chions
Chions
G. Ciriello 35', 2'
12/8/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 17Stadio Guido Teghil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Brian Lignano49%
×Draw25%
Chions25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brian Lignano
1.56
Chions
1.04

Brian Lignano creates 50% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 50 away

creates per match

Brian Lignano
1.28
Chions
1.10

allows per match

Brian Lignano
0.97
Chions
1.84

finishing

Brian Lignano+0.00on par
Chions+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brian Lignano ↓

Chions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Brian Lignano or draw
75%
Brian Lignano or Chions
75%
Draw or Chions
51%

Winning margin

Brian Lignano wins by 2+
25%
Chions wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brian Lignano 1+ goals
79%
Brian Lignano 2+ goals
46%
Brian Lignano 3+ goals
21%
Chions 1+ goals
65%
Chions 2+ goals
28%
Chions 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Brian Lignano (draw refunded)
66%
Chions (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brian Lignano at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Chions away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brian Lignano attack 1.28 + Chions defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.56

Chions attack 1.10 + Brian Lignano defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brian Lignano scores more
49%
level
25%
Chions scores more
25%

Brian Lignano at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brian Lignano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
G. Ciriello
35'
G. Ciriello

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Brian Lignano 2–0 Chions

Brian Lignano beat Chions 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 8, 2024.

Goals: G. Ciriello (2', 35').

The match was played at Stadio Guido Teghil in Lignano Sabbiadoro.