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Brian Lignano vs Caravaggio — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Brian Lignano
Brian Lignano
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Caravaggio
Caravaggio
4/13/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 35Stadio Guido Teghil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brian Lignano44%
×Draw28%
Caravaggio28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brian Lignano
1.33
Caravaggio
1.01

Brian Lignano creates 32% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 19 away

creates per match

Brian Lignano
1.28
Caravaggio
1.05

allows per match

Brian Lignano
0.97
Caravaggio
1.37

finishing

Brian Lignano+0.00on par
Caravaggio+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brian Lignano ↓

Caravaggio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Brian Lignano or draw
72%
Brian Lignano or Caravaggio
72%
Draw or Caravaggio
56%

Winning margin

Brian Lignano wins by 2+
20%
Caravaggio wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brian Lignano 1+ goals
74%
Brian Lignano 2+ goals
38%
Brian Lignano 3+ goals
15%
Caravaggio 1+ goals
64%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
27%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Brian Lignano (draw refunded)
61%
Caravaggio (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brian Lignano at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Caravaggio away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brian Lignano attack 1.28 + Caravaggio defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Caravaggio attack 1.05 + Brian Lignano defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Brian Lignano scores more
44%
level
28%
Caravaggio scores more
28%

Brian Lignano at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brian Lignano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Brian Lignano 2–2 Caravaggio

Brian Lignano and Caravaggio drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone C on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Guido Teghil in Lignano Sabbiadoro.