Breznica W 2–3 Spartak Myjava W: Result & Stats

Breznica W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Spartak Myjava W

8/18/2022

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsStadion Mitar Mićo Goliš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Breznica W56%

×Draw18%

Spartak Myjava W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Breznica WExpected goals in this matchSpartak Myjava W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

1.88

Breznica W

2.75

Spartak Myjava W

1.88

Breznica W creates 46% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

2.25

creates per match

1.25

2.50

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Breznica W

2.25

Spartak Myjava W

1.25

allows per match

Breznica W

2.50

Spartak Myjava W

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Breznica W+0.00on par

Spartak Myjava W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breznica W ↓

Spartak Myjava W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Breznica W or draw

74%

Breznica W or Spartak Myjava W

82%

Draw or Spartak Myjava W

44%

Winning margin

Breznica W wins by 2+

36%

Spartak Myjava W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Breznica W 1+ goals

93%

Breznica W 2+ goals

75%

Breznica W 3+ goals

51%

Spartak Myjava W 1+ goals

85%

Spartak Myjava W 2+ goals

56%

Spartak Myjava W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Breznica W (draw refunded)

68%

Spartak Myjava W (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breznica W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Spartak Myjava W away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breznica W attack 2.25 + Spartak Myjava W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.75

Spartak Myjava W attack 1.25 + Breznica W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Breznica W scores more

56%

level

18%

Spartak Myjava W scores more

26%

Breznica W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Breznica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff