Breznica W 4–4 NSA Sofia W: Result & Stats

Breznica W

FT

4 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

NSA Sofia W

8/7/2019

UEFA Champions League Women · Qualifying Round - 1Stadion pod Malim brdom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Breznica W58%

×Draw18%

NSA Sofia W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Breznica WExpected goals in this matchNSA Sofia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

1.88

Breznica W

2.88

NSA Sofia W

1.88

Breznica W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.25

creates per match

1.25

2.50

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Breznica W

2.25

NSA Sofia W

1.25

allows per match

Breznica W

2.50

NSA Sofia W

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Breznica W+0.00on par

NSA Sofia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breznica W ↓

NSA Sofia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Breznica W or draw

75%

Breznica W or NSA Sofia W

82%

Draw or NSA Sofia W

42%

Winning margin

Breznica W wins by 2+

38%

NSA Sofia W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Breznica W 1+ goals

94%

Breznica W 2+ goals

78%

Breznica W 3+ goals

54%

NSA Sofia W 1+ goals

85%

NSA Sofia W 2+ goals

56%

NSA Sofia W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Breznica W (draw refunded)

70%

NSA Sofia W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breznica W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

NSA Sofia W away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breznica W attack 2.25 + NSA Sofia W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.88

NSA Sofia W attack 1.25 + Breznica W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Breznica W scores more

58%

level

18%

NSA Sofia W scores more

25%

Breznica W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Breznica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff