Brežice 1–1 Triglav: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Brežice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Triglav

N. Gradišar 66'

A. Jakupovič 48'

10/23/2021

2. SNL · Round 13Stadion Brežice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Brežice31%

×Draw26%

Triglav42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrežiceExpected goals in this matchTriglav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.40

Brežice

1.16

Triglav

1.40

Triglav creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 88 away

1.21

creates per match

1.53

1.26

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Brežice

1.21

Triglav

1.53

allows per match

Brežice

1.26

Triglav

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par

Triglav+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

Triglav →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Brežice or draw

58%

Brežice or Triglav

74%

Draw or Triglav

69%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+

13%

Triglav wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals

69%

Brežice 2+ goals

32%

Brežice 3+ goals

11%

Triglav 1+ goals

75%

Triglav 2+ goals

41%

Triglav 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)

42%

Triglav (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Triglav away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 1.21 + Triglav defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Triglav attack 1.53 + Brežice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brežice scores more

31%

level

26%

Triglav scores more

42%

Triglav at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Triglav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

A. Jakupovič

65'

G. Schweiger← M. Čeh

66'

N. Gradišar

72'

R. Gorenc← N. Gradišar

80'

N. Geč← W. Maapeh

80'

A. Ahmetaj← A. Jakupovič

89'

L. Urek← A. Ruedl

89'

Tim Matić← A. Zlatkov

Brežice

Triglav

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Kapušin

72'▲R. Gorenc←▼N. Gradišar

80'▲N. Geč←▼W. Maapeh

89'▲L. Urek←▼A. Ruedl

Brežice substitutes

GorencGečUrekBajsJuhartGoričarSirk

Manager: B. Miklič

65'▲G. Schweiger←▼M. Čeh

80'▲A. Ahmetaj←▼A. Jakupovič

89'▲Tim Matić←▼A. Zlatkov

Triglav substitutes

SchweigerAhmetajMatićTatiliIdrizi