Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brežice vs Tabor Sežana — 2. SNL 2019

Brežice
Brežice
Preview
17:00
Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
3/14/20272. SNL2. SNL · Round 19
37%
Brežice
model favours
37%26%37%
1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Brežice37%
×Draw26%
Tabor Sežana37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brežice
1.33
Tabor Sežana
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 48 away

creates per match

Brežice
1.21
Tabor Sežana
1.42

allows per match

Brežice
1.26
Tabor Sežana
1.46

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par
Tabor Sežana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

Tabor Sežana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brežice or draw
63%
Brežice or Tabor Sežana
74%
Draw or Tabor Sežana
63%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+
16%
Tabor Sežana wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals
74%
Brežice 2+ goals
38%
Brežice 3+ goals
15%
Tabor Sežana 1+ goals
74%
Tabor Sežana 2+ goals
39%
Tabor Sežana 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)
50%
Tabor Sežana (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Tabor Sežana away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.46 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 1.21 + Tabor Sežana defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tabor Sežana attack 1.42 + Brežice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Brežice scores more
37%
level
26%
Tabor Sežana scores more
37%

Brežice at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Brežice
LWWWD
Sežana
WWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brežice face Tabor Sežana (2. SNL)

2. SNL returns with Brežice hosting Tabor Sežana. Match starts March 14, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.