Brežice 1–2 Rudar: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Brežice

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Rudar

D. Brkić 29'

S. Jovanović 88'

N. Koprivnik 28'

5/4/2022

2. SNL · Round 27Stadion Brežice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Brežice43%

×Draw25%

Rudar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrežiceExpected goals in this matchRudar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.27

Brežice

1.50

Rudar

1.27

Brežice creates 18% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 86 away

1.21

creates per match

1.27

1.26

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Brežice

1.21

Rudar

1.27

allows per match

Brežice

1.26

Rudar

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par

Rudar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

Rudar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Brežice or draw

68%

Brežice or Rudar

75%

Draw or Rudar

57%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+

21%

Rudar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals

78%

Brežice 2+ goals

44%

Brežice 3+ goals

19%

Rudar 1+ goals

72%

Rudar 2+ goals

36%

Rudar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)

57%

Rudar (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Rudar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 1.21 + Rudar defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rudar attack 1.27 + Brežice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brežice scores more

43%

level

25%

Rudar scores more

32%

Brežice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

N. Koprivnik

29'

D. Brkić

57'

G. Jovan← G. Hrovat

73'

M. Kordić-Gružić← T. Brkić

74'

H. Muzaferović← M. Vujčić

77'

A. Vošnjak← N. Koprivnik

77'

S. Jovanović← S. Wirekoh

83'

R. Rudonja← F. Kosić

88'

S. Jovanović

Brežice

Rudar

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: D. Vegel

73'▲M. Kordić-Gružić←▼T. Brkić

74'▲H. Muzaferović←▼M. Vujčić

Brežice substitutes

Kordić-GružićMuzaferovićGrantUrekMrvičSmiljanićGečŠtajcerGoričar

Manager: Ž. Mitraković

57'▲G. Jovan←▼G. Hrovat

77'▲A. Vošnjak←▼N. Koprivnik

77'▲S. Jovanović←▼S. Wirekoh

83'▲R. Rudonja←▼F. Kosić

Rudar substitutes

JovanVošnjakJovanovićRudonjaĐođŽigerMusaŠtrakl