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Brežice vs NŠ Drava — 2. SNL 2019

Brežice
Brežice
CANC
00:00
NŠ Drava
NŠ Drava
3/14/20202. SNL2. SNL · Round 21Stadion Brežice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Brežice51%
×Draw24%
NŠ Drava26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brežice
1.76
NŠ Drava
1.18

Brežice creates 49% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 52 away

creates per match

Brežice
1.21
NŠ Drava
1.10

allows per match

Brežice
1.26
NŠ Drava
2.31

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par
NŠ Drava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

NŠ Drava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brežice or draw
74%
Brežice or NŠ Drava
76%
Draw or NŠ Drava
49%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+
28%
NŠ Drava wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals
83%
Brežice 2+ goals
52%
Brežice 3+ goals
26%
NŠ Drava 1+ goals
69%
NŠ Drava 2+ goals
33%
NŠ Drava 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)
67%
NŠ Drava (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

NŠ Drava away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 1.21 + NŠ Drava defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.76

NŠ Drava attack 1.10 + Brežice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brežice scores more
51%
level
24%
NŠ Drava scores more
26%

Brežice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brežice face NŠ Drava (2. SNL)

2. SNL returns with Brežice hosting NŠ Drava. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Brežice host NŠ Drava at Stadion Brežice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.