Brežice 0–8 MTK Budapest: Result & Stats

Brežice

0 – 8

MTK Budapest

7/18/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Športni Park Ruteč

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Brežice15%

×Draw14%

MTK Budapest71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrežiceExpected goals in this matchMTK Budapest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

3.41

Brežice

1.57

MTK Budapest

3.41

MTK Budapest creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

2.82

4.00

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Brežice

1.50

MTK Budapest

2.82

allows per match

Brežice

4.00

MTK Budapest

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par

MTK Budapest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

MTK Budapest →

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–35%

0–44%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Brežice or draw

29%

Brežice or MTK Budapest

86%

Draw or MTK Budapest

85%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+

MTK Budapest wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals

79%

Brežice 2+ goals

46%

Brežice 3+ goals

21%

MTK Budapest 1+ goals

96%

MTK Budapest 2+ goals

85%

MTK Budapest 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)

17%

MTK Budapest (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

MTK Budapest away — creates 2.82, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 1.50 + MTK Budapest defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

MTK Budapest attack 2.82 + Brežice defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Brežice scores more

15%

level

14%

MTK Budapest scores more

71%

MTK Budapest at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "MTK Budapest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff