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Brežice vs Krka — 2. SNL 2019

Brežice
Brežice
CANC
15:00
Krka
Krka
5/2/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Brežice35%
×Draw27%
Krka38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brežice
1.23
Krka
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 93 away

creates per match

Brežice
1.21
Krka
1.30

allows per match

Brežice
1.26
Krka
1.26

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par
Krka+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

Krka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Brežice or draw
62%
Brežice or Krka
73%
Draw or Krka
65%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+
15%
Krka wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals
71%
Brežice 2+ goals
35%
Brežice 3+ goals
13%
Krka 1+ goals
72%
Krka 2+ goals
37%
Krka 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)
48%
Krka (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Krka away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 1.21 + Krka defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Krka attack 1.30 + Brežice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brežice scores more
35%
level
27%
Krka scores more
38%

Krka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brežice face Krka (2. SNL)

2. SNL returns with Brežice hosting Krka. Match starts May 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.