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Brežice vs HNK Gorica — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Brežice
Brežice
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
F. Belosa Fijan 10'
F. Chinedu 85'
M. Gashi 66'
B. Kardum 53'
A. Erceg 39', 20'
7/9/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Brežice16%
×Draw16%
HNK Gorica68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brežice
1.31
HNK Gorica
2.83

HNK Gorica creates 116% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Brežice
1.50
HNK Gorica
1.67

allows per match

Brežice
4.00
HNK Gorica
1.11

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par
HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

HNK Gorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Brežice or draw
32%
Brežice or HNK Gorica
84%
Draw or HNK Gorica
84%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+
6%
HNK Gorica wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals
73%
Brežice 2+ goals
38%
Brežice 3+ goals
14%
HNK Gorica 1+ goals
94%
HNK Gorica 2+ goals
77%
HNK Gorica 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)
19%
HNK Gorica (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 1.50 + HNK Gorica defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

HNK Gorica attack 1.67 + Brežice defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Brežice scores more
16%
level
16%
HNK Gorica scores more
68%

HNK Gorica at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
F. Belosa Fijan
20'
A. Erceg
39'
A. Erceg
53'
B. Kardum
66'
M. Gashi
85'
F. Chinedu
Brežice
HNK
D. Vegel
Manager: D. Vegel
Mario Carevic
Manager: Mario Carevic

Match Recap: Brežice vs HNK Gorica

HNK Gorica beat Brežice 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 9, 2026.

Goals: F. Belosa Fijan (10'), A. Erceg (20', 39'), B. Kardum (53'), M. Gashi (66'), F. Chinedu (85').