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Brežice vs Dobrovce — 3. SNL - East 2020

Brežice
Brežice
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dobrovce
Dobrovce
10/4/20253. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 8Stadion Brežice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brežice68%
×Draw19%
Dobrovce13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brežice
2.23
Dobrovce
0.85

Brežice creates 162% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 20 away

creates per match

Brežice
2.00
Dobrovce
0.95

allows per match

Brežice
0.75
Dobrovce
2.45

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par
Dobrovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

Dobrovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Brežice or draw
87%
Brežice or Dobrovce
81%
Draw or Dobrovce
32%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+
45%
Dobrovce wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals
89%
Brežice 2+ goals
65%
Brežice 3+ goals
38%
Dobrovce 1+ goals
57%
Dobrovce 2+ goals
21%
Dobrovce 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)
84%
Dobrovce (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Dobrovce away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 2.00 + Dobrovce defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.23

Dobrovce attack 0.95 + Brežice defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Brežice scores more
68%
level
19%
Dobrovce scores more
13%

Brežice at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brežice vs Dobrovce

Brežice beat Dobrovce 3-0 in 3. SNL - East on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Brežice in Brežice.