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Brevard vs Tampa Bay United — USL League Two 2018

Brevard
Brevard
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Tampa Bay United
Tampa Bay United
6/4/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 6Melbourne Central Catholic High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Brevard35%
×Draw23%
Tampa Bay United43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brevard
1.58
Tampa Bay United
1.77

Tampa Bay United creates 12% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

creates per match

Brevard
1.48
Tampa Bay United
1.28

allows per match

Brevard
2.26
Tampa Bay United
1.68

finishing

Brevard+0.00on par
Tampa Bay United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brevard ↓

Tampa Bay United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Brevard or draw
57%
Brevard or Tampa Bay United
77%
Draw or Tampa Bay United
65%

Winning margin

Brevard wins by 2+
17%
Tampa Bay United wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Brevard 1+ goals
79%
Brevard 2+ goals
47%
Brevard 3+ goals
21%
Tampa Bay United 1+ goals
83%
Tampa Bay United 2+ goals
53%
Tampa Bay United 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Brevard (draw refunded)
45%
Tampa Bay United (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brevard at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.26 · 23 matches

Tampa Bay United away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brevard attack 1.48 + Tampa Bay United defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tampa Bay United attack 1.28 + Brevard defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brevard scores more
35%
level
23%
Tampa Bay United scores more
43%

Tampa Bay United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tampa Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Brevard 2–3 Tampa Bay United

Tampa Bay United beat Brevard 3-2 in USL League Two on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Melbourne Central Catholic High School Stadium in Melbourne, Florida.