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Brevard vs Florida Elite — USL League Two 2018

Brevard
Brevard
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Florida Elite
Florida Elite
6/18/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 10Florida Tech Panther Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Brevard31%
×Draw23%
Florida Elite46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brevard
1.44
Florida Elite
1.81

Florida Elite creates 26% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 27 away

creates per match

Brevard
1.48
Florida Elite
1.37

allows per match

Brevard
2.26
Florida Elite
1.41

finishing

Brevard+0.00on par
Florida Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brevard ↓

Florida Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Brevard or draw
54%
Brevard or Florida Elite
77%
Draw or Florida Elite
69%

Winning margin

Brevard wins by 2+
14%
Florida Elite wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Brevard 1+ goals
76%
Brevard 2+ goals
42%
Brevard 3+ goals
18%
Florida Elite 1+ goals
84%
Florida Elite 2+ goals
54%
Florida Elite 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Brevard (draw refunded)
40%
Florida Elite (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brevard at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.26 · 23 matches

Florida Elite away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brevard attack 1.48 + Florida Elite defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Florida Elite attack 1.37 + Brevard defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brevard scores more
31%
level
23%
Florida Elite scores more
46%

Florida Elite at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Florida Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Brevard 1–2 Florida Elite

Florida Elite beat Brevard 2-1 in USL League Two on June 18, 2024.

The match was played at Florida Tech Panther Stadium in Melbourne, Florida.