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Brescia vs Venezia — Serie B 2018

Brescia
Brescia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Venezia
Venezia
A. Papetti 90+5'
D. Bisoli 13'
F. Forte 55', 33'
11/21/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 8Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Brescia38%
×Draw27%
Venezia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.27
Venezia
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 117 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.48
Venezia
1.22

allows per match

Brescia
1.17
Venezia
1.07

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Venezia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Venezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
66%
Brescia or Venezia
73%
Draw or Venezia
62%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
17%
Venezia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
72%
Brescia 2+ goals
36%
Brescia 3+ goals
14%
Venezia 1+ goals
70%
Venezia 2+ goals
33%
Venezia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
53%
Venezia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 117 matches

Venezia away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.48 + Venezia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Venezia attack 1.22 + Brescia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brescia scores more
38%
level
27%
Venezia scores more
34%

Brescia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
F. ForteVeneziaVenezia · F
8.3

Match Events

13'
Mattia Aramu
13'
D. Bisoli↳ D. Dessena
33'
F. Forte↳ M. Aramu
51'
Alfredo Donnarumma
55'
F. Forte↳ L. Fiordilino
56'
F. Jagiełło← N. Špalek
64'
E. Torregrossa← F. Ayé
65'
Y. Maleh← M. Aramu
70'
T. van de Looi← D. Bisoli
70'
B. Bjarnason← J. Łabojko
77'
Ó. Karlsson← D. Johnsen
84'
A. Taugourdeau← A. Vacca
90'
Luca Fiordilino
90'
Alessandro Capello
90+5'
A. Papetti

Possession

55%Brescia

Shots

12Brescia

Pass accuracy

50%Brescia

Statistics

BresciaVenezia
Overview
55%Possession45%
12Total Shots16
6Corners6
9Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots16
7On Target7
2Off Target6
3Blocked3
7Inside Box12
5Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
573Total Passes447
460Accurate Passes364
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3
6Offsides0

Match Recap: Brescia vs Venezia

Brescia and Venezia drew 2-2 in Serie B on November 21, 2020.

Goals: D. Bisoli (13'), F. Forte (33', 55'), A. Papetti (90+5').

Brescia controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.