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Brescia vs Torino — Serie A 2026

Brescia
Brescia
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Torino
Torino
11/9/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 12Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Brescia32%
×Draw26%
Torino42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.20
Torino
1.40

Torino creates 17% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 138 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.00
Torino
1.12

allows per match

Brescia
1.68
Torino
1.40

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Torino+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Torino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
58%
Brescia or Torino
74%
Draw or Torino
68%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
13%
Torino wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
70%
Brescia 2+ goals
34%
Brescia 3+ goals
12%
Torino 1+ goals
75%
Torino 2+ goals
41%
Torino 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
44%
Torino (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Torino away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.00 + Torino defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Torino attack 1.12 + Brescia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brescia scores more
32%
level
26%
Torino scores more
42%

Torino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Brescia 0–4 Torino

Torino beat Brescia 4-0 in Serie A on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.