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Brescia vs Sampdoria — Serie B 2018

Brescia
Brescia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
12/3/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 15Stadio Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Brescia46%
×Draw25%
Sampdoria29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia
1.52
Sampdoria
1.15

Brescia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 58 away

creates per match

Brescia
1.50
Sampdoria
1.14

allows per match

Brescia
1.17
Sampdoria
1.53

finishing

Brescia+0.00on par
Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia ↓

Sampdoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brescia or draw
71%
Brescia or Sampdoria
75%
Draw or Sampdoria
54%

Winning margin

Brescia wins by 2+
23%
Sampdoria wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brescia 1+ goals
78%
Brescia 2+ goals
45%
Brescia 3+ goals
20%
Sampdoria 1+ goals
68%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
32%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brescia (draw refunded)
61%
Sampdoria (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia attack 1.50 + Sampdoria defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sampdoria attack 1.14 + Brescia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Brescia scores more
46%
level
25%
Sampdoria scores more
29%

Brescia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Brescia 3–1 Sampdoria

Brescia beat Sampdoria 3-1 in Serie B on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.